Every year, the race for who will be nominated for Best Actress in a Leading Role is rarely linear. So many bold female performances deserve a nomination, but there can only be one.

The interesting thing about this award season (especially in this specific category) is that some nominees who were projected to get nominated for a particular category didn’t, and some nominees who were perhaps not as favored have come out of nowhere to receive a nomination in an area that could lead to an Academy Award. have missed out on big nominations, let alone wins they were projected to receive. With the unpredictability of the year and only having five slots available, knowing or predicting who will all be nominated is exciting but even more challenging. While 2024 was brimming with note-worthy performances, only a few can be nominated, and only one will win. 

Many Are Worthy, but There Can Only be Five Nominees

Cynthia Erivo is a force of nature in Wicked. That being said, it is just as easy to say that she is worthy of nomination as it is in the same breath to say that she’s not. This all boils down to the fact that Wicked is only part of the story, with the film’s second half coming out in November. That leaves room to wonder if she will continue to be a force of nature or rise above that and give a range not fully explored in Wicked. There are a lot of fair arguments as to why a nomination could be given or saved for next year‘s race if expectations are preceded yet again. Though this wouldn’t be the first time Ervio has been nominated, another nomination this year is warranted. However, the Academy might have to accept that the performance isn’t fully fleshed out.

Nicole Kidman has been working hard lately, and that does not seem to be stopping anytime soon. Her performance in Babygirl is raw and vulnerable in the most engaging ways possible. Her balance between power and desire was heavily felt and showcased through her portrayal in the film. The major motion picture is solid but doesn’t reach its full potential. While Kidman is more than worthy of a nomination, the race is vastly competitive this year, and someone must sit out.

On top of that, with the film’s subject matter being what it is, it may not resonate well with academy voters even though her performance is at the helm. With her being nominated for Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture Drama amongst being nominated and winning repeatedly, Kidman has the career narrative that can save her. Still, it will be an uphill battle to receive a nomination officially.

Of all of Pablo Larrain’s female lead biopics, Angelina Jolie gives the most realistic performance of the three. Jolie’s portrayal of Maria Callas is spiritual, and there are plenty of moments throughout the movie where she shines in Callas’ shoes. Unlike Larrain’s other biopics, Jolie assumes power in the best ways possible. Jolie’s most profound part is at the end, where she finally lets her spiritual connection with Callas take charge, and it solidifies that all of the adoration, pain, and strife she was dealing with have subsided. In the past, Jolie has been nominated for both leading and supporting roles while winning in supporting for her role in Girl, Interrupted. Though the film has its audience, it has lost a lot of steam at this moment, especially with Jolie missing out on a BAFTA and SAG nomination, so only time will tell if she will make the final lineup, but it’s not likely.

With Emilia Peréz being a bold ensemble of strong performances, it can be hard to decipher who the lead is. But as the film progresses, Karla Sofia Gascón slowly begins to take the reigns, showcasing her talent as an actress and leading lady. While she plays the titular character that the film is named after, she works as the multiplier between her other female counterparts. Gascón assumes power throughout the film, and when that power does let up, it is encapsulated with moments of immense change that affect others’ lives for the better. There are moments when Gascon is searching to find who she is, and in doing so, we see the good and the bad in it, whether from the past or the present. In finalizing who Emilia Peréz is, Gascón shines as a ray of light and a beacon of love and hope for those in her community. Gascón has been praised for her performance by receiving awards from the Cannes Film Festival and European Film Festival, where she won Best Actress for both. She is also the first trans actress nominated at the Golden Globes for Best Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical or Comedy.

Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths 

Marianne Jean-Baptiste has been a critics juggernaut this entire awards season. Critics have been very receptive to her contribution in Hard Truths, and viewers have deemed her performance one of the most unique to come out of 2024. Bleecker Street produces Hard Truths and is a little lackluster in marketing its talent with award-season pushes. That being said, when their talent is more than worthy, such as Jean-Baptiste, it’s often the recognition from viewers that does more for the performance to have a shot at the nomination than anything. Baptiste was nominated for an Academy Award, Golden Globe, and BAFTA for Best Supporting Actress for her role in Secrets and Lies under the same director of Hard Truths, Mike Leigh. This awards season, she’s been nominated notably for a Critics Choice and BAFTA. Although she missed out on a Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe nomination, she still has a shot. The academy is known for having an out-of-the-field nominee in the Best Actress in a Leading Role category each year, and she fits the bill, not only for her past accolades but her present acclaim.